10 March 2008

Out of Your Element: Eric Byrnes

Some players made substantial fantasy contributions in 2007, but aren't likely to put up the same numbers in 2008.  This feature looks at some likely goldbrickers:  

Eric Byrnes
In 2007 he had 21 HR, 50 SB and batted .286 in 626 at bats.  ESPN now has him 12th among outfielders, 33rd overall.  First, note that he's 32 years old.  And it's an old 32, as well; he plays hard and gets hurt.  2007 was only Duderino's 3rd season with over 450 at bats (and he's been in the league 8 years).  Not to mention, prior to 2007, he'd stolen a total of 65 bases.  Of course, speed - his most valuable asset - doesn't disappear overnight.  Unless he's hurt.  Again.  And I don't think a speedster on the wrong side of 30, with a career BA of .267, is worth taking in the first 3 or 4 rounds.  

Some ancient history, for comparison's sake (AB; R; HR; RBI; SB):

Byrnes: .267 career avg
2004:  569; 91; 20; 73; 17
2005:  412; 49; 10; 40; 7
2006:  562; 82; 26; 79; 25

Player X:  .258 career avg
2004:  630; 91; 24; 72; 32
2005:  451; 47; 13; 34; 15
2006:  463; 75; 16; 53; 45

Now, before you say "Sh*t, I know that guy.  He's a nihilist.  Karl Hungus..."  Player X is Corey Patterson - who, btw, is not currently ranked among ESPN's top 340.  Cincinnati just signed him for 2008.  

No comments: