11 March 2008

The Other Lebowski: C. Young's 2nd Half

Chris R. Young (SP) was making a bid to be Knox Herrington of fantasy pitchers for the first half of 2007.  Then he sustained an oblique injury in July, and things were never quite the same: 
2007 1st half:  103.9 IP; 74 H; 23 ER; 3 HR; 36 BB; 99 K, 2.00 ERA
2007 2nd half:  69.1 IP; 44 H; 37 ER; 7 HR; 36 BB; 68 K, 4.81 ERA
2007 Final:  173 IP; 118 H; 60 ER; 10 HR; 72 BB; 167 K, 3.12 ERA

AJ Mass of ESPN, even taking the second half injury into account, is wondering if C. Young is a 2008 bust candidate based upon his home/away splits: 

"When Young left the nest, the story was quite a different one.  The 1.69 home ERA skyrocketed to 4.52, and while he allowed only one home run at Petco in 2007, he allowed nine long balls on the road."

With all due respect to my brother seamus at ESPN, I've seen a bunch of phonies in my day - and I don't think C. Young is one of 'em.  Let's look at Young's away stats before and after the ASB (which is, basically, before and after the oblique injury):  

Away 1st half:  47.5 IP, 42 H, 18 ER, 3 HR, 18 BB, 47 K, 3.41 ERA
Away 2nd half:  39 IP, 26 H, 26 ER, 6 HR, 22 BB, 43 K, 6.00 ERA

The injured Young struggled w/ his control in the 2nd half.  He was walking more batters, and although he wasn't giving up as many hits, he clearly had more issues w/ the long ball; twice as many as in the first half in 4/5 the IP.  Add those things together and you get a ballooning ERA.  (Interestingly, his K rate improved.)  

So, just citing his overall home/away splits for the year is a little misleading.  While, yes, Young clearly performs much better at Petco, he was much better on the road before his injury.  I mean, am I splitting hairs here?  Am I wrong?  Am I wrong?  

He should be fine in 2008.  You know, uhhhh, unless he gets injured.  

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