11 March 2008

The Other Lebowski: D. Haren's 2nd Half

In 2007, Dan Haren's owners were thrilled with his first half 2.30 ERA.  But then he went and peed on the rug after the ASB to the tune of a 4.22 ERA.  His home/away splits were similar in the first half.  In the second half he wasn't himself - especially on the road:  
2nd half home:  44.2 IP; 53 H; 18 ER; 3 HR; 12 BB; 39 K; 3.66 ERA
2nd half away:  47.5 IP; 64 H; 25 ER; 10 HR; 11 BB; 52 K; 4.73 ERA

Two notes of concern for Haren's owners in 2008:

1) Unlike Chris Young, Haren wasn't known to be dealing with any kind of injury and
2) His home field is no longer the pitching paradise that is Oakland.  

It's likely that Haren just got tired as the season wore on.  But it's also worth noting that his ERA in 2005 and 2006 (his two other 200+ inning seasons) was 3.73 and 4.12, respectively.  For 2005-2007, his WHIP has remained a steady 1.21 with no substantial change in BAA, either.  
He turns 28 this fall (28 year olds, dude...) and should continue to improve rather than regress.  The potential change to his ERA from moving out of Oakland will be negated by pitching to those NL bats that have never seen his stuff before.  Plus, if all goes according to plan, he should have an easier time w/ wins, too.  

But the real Lebowski?  It wouldn't be shocking to see him somewhere closer to a 3.50 ERA than his first half 2.30.  

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