The Other Lebowski: D. Haren's 2nd Half

In 2007, Dan Haren's owners were thrilled with his first half 2.30 ERA.  But then he went and peed on the rug after the ASB to the tune of a 4.22 ERA.  His home/away splits were similar in the first half.  In the second half he wasn't himself - especially on the road:  

2nd half home:  44.2 IP; 53 H; 18 ER; 3 HR; 12 BB; 39 K; 3.66 ERA

2nd half away:  47.5 IP; 64 H; 25 ER; 10 HR; 11 BB; 52 K; 4.73 ERA

Two notes of concern for Haren's owners in 2008:

1) Unlike Chris Young, Haren wasn't known to be dealing with any kind of injury and

2) His home field is no longer the pitching paradise that is Oakland.  

It's likely that Haren just got tired as the season wore on.  But it's also worth noting that his ERA in 2005 and 2006 (his two other 200+ inning seasons) was 3.73 and 4.12, respectively.  For 2005-2007, his WHIP has remained a steady 1.21 with no substantial change in BAA, either.  

He turns 28 this fall (28 year olds, dude...) and should continue to improve rather than regress.  The potential change to his ERA from moving out of Oakland will be negated by pitching to those NL bats that have never seen his stuff before.  Plus, if all goes according to plan, he should have an easier time w/ wins, too.  

But the real Lebowski?  It wouldn't be shocking to see him somewhere closer to a 3.50 ERA than his first half 2.30.  

The Other Lebowski: C. Young's 2nd Half

Chris R. Young (SP) was making a bid to be Knox Herrington of fantasy pitchers for the first half of 2007.  Then he sustained an oblique injury in July, and things were never quite the same: 

2007 1st half:  103.9 IP; 74 H; 23 ER; 3 HR; 36 BB; 99 K, 2.00 ERA

2007 2nd half:  69.1 IP; 44 H; 37 ER; 7 HR; 36 BB; 68 K, 4.81 ERA

2007 Final:  173 IP; 118 H; 60 ER; 10 HR; 72 BB; 167 K, 3.12 ERA

AJ Mass of ESPN, even taking the second half injury into account, is wondering if C. Young is a 2008 bust candidate based upon his home/away splits: 

"When Young left the nest, the story was quite a different one.  The 1.69 home ERA skyrocketed to 4.52, and while he allowed only one home run at Petco in 2007, he allowed nine long balls on the road."

With all due respect to my brother seamus at ESPN, I've seen a bunch of phonies in my day - and I don't think C. Young is one of 'em.  Let's look at Young's away stats before and after the ASB (which is, basically, before and after the oblique injury):  

Away 1st half:  47.5 IP, 42 H, 18 ER, 3 HR, 18 BB, 47 K, 3.41 ERA

Away 2nd half:  39 IP, 26 H, 26 ER, 6 HR, 22 BB, 43 K, 6.00 ERA

The injured Young struggled w/ his control in the 2nd half.  He was walking more batters, and although he wasn't giving up as many hits, he clearly had more issues w/ the long ball; twice as many as in the first half in 4/5 the IP.  Add those things together and you get a ballooning ERA.  (Interestingly, his K rate improved.)  

So, just citing his overall home/away splits for the year is a little misleading.  While, yes, Young clearly performs much better at Petco, he was much better on the road before his injury.  I mean, am I splitting hairs here?  Am I wrong?  Am I wrong?  

He should be fine in 2008.  You know, uhhhh, unless he gets injured.  

Calmer Than You: On Reservations About Fausto

ESPN ranks Fausto Carmona the 16th overall SP.  My thoughts are that this is a pretty fair place for him to be ranked.  Things clicked for the young sinker-ball thrower, last year, and the only thing preventing him from utter dominance in 2007 was a low strikeout rate.  His final stats for 2007: 

215 IP, 137 SO, 19 W, 8 L, 3.06 ERA, 1.209 WHIP

RotoWire, and misc. talking heads (of varying degrees of prominence), are considering Carmona closer to #30.  Why?  "Because no one knows how pitching all of those innings in 2007 will effect him this year."  Sounds like a fair point, right?  Let's go to the numbers.  Here are the top 20 (according to the vox populi at ESPN) SP, their IP, total pitches thrown, and avg pitches/inning:

1. Johan Santana - 219 - 3345 - 15.27

2. Jake Peavy - 223 - 3610 - 16.19

3. Erik Bedard - 182 - 2946 - 16.19

4. Brandon Webb - 236 - 3437 - 14.56

5. C.C. Sabathia - 241 - 3581 - 14.86

6. Josh Beckett - 200.7 - 3100 - 15.45

7. Cole Hamels - 183.3 - 2791 - 15.23

8. Dan Haren - 227 - 3635 - 16.01

9. John Lackey - 224 - 3396 - 15.16

10. Justin Verlander - 201.7 - 3354 - 16.63

11. Aaron Harang - 231.7 - 3591 - 15.5

12. Roy Oswalt - 212 - 3303 - 15.58

13. John Smoltz - 205.7 - 3062 - 14.89

14. Roy Halladay - 225 - 3330 - 14.8

15. Chris Young:  173 - 2884 - 16.67

16. Fausto Carmona:  215 - 3137 - 14.59

17. Daisuke Matsuzaka:  204.7 - 3480 - 17.00

18. Carlos Zambrano:  216.3 - 3692 - 17.07

19. Javier Vazquez:  216.7 - 3465 - 15.99

20. James Shields:  215 - 3177 - 14.78

For those of you not # crunching at home, of the "top 20" pitchers, Carmona had the 11th most IP.  Sure, 215 IP is a lot for a 2nd year guy (we're looking at you, J. Shields).  But, also of note, Carmona threw 3,137 pitches - good for only 15th most of these 20.  That's an average of 14.59 pitches/inning; only B. Webb was more efficient.  Hmm, suddenly all those innings aren't looking as strenuous.    

So when Donny whines about Carmona being ranked too high because of the IP factor without acknowledgement of total pitches, then tell him to STFU.  That's especially true if he doesn't hold other pitchers to the same standard (e.g., Shields).  

Furthermore, if Donny starts downplaying Carmona (say, to the tune of a #30 or lower ranking), beware: the little creep may be stonewalling you.  

All that said, Carmona shouldn't be ranked HIGHER than #16.  He is still young, no track record, and he got pretty lucky w/ BABIP in 2007.  Expect his ERA to go up a little in 2008, but there's no evidence that the plane's about to crash into the damned mountain, either.  

N.B.  - oh yeah, for you thinkers out there who place extra value on 2nd half performance: Carmona's K rate went UP as the season wore on.  And, of course, his ERA dropped .80 after the ASB.