The Other Lebowski: D. Haren's 2nd Half

In 2007, Dan Haren's owners were thrilled with his first half 2.30 ERA.  But then he went and peed on the rug after the ASB to the tune of a 4.22 ERA.  His home/away splits were similar in the first half.  In the second half he wasn't himself - especially on the road:  

2nd half home:  44.2 IP; 53 H; 18 ER; 3 HR; 12 BB; 39 K; 3.66 ERA

2nd half away:  47.5 IP; 64 H; 25 ER; 10 HR; 11 BB; 52 K; 4.73 ERA

Two notes of concern for Haren's owners in 2008:

1) Unlike Chris Young, Haren wasn't known to be dealing with any kind of injury and

2) His home field is no longer the pitching paradise that is Oakland.  

It's likely that Haren just got tired as the season wore on.  But it's also worth noting that his ERA in 2005 and 2006 (his two other 200+ inning seasons) was 3.73 and 4.12, respectively.  For 2005-2007, his WHIP has remained a steady 1.21 with no substantial change in BAA, either.  

He turns 28 this fall (28 year olds, dude...) and should continue to improve rather than regress.  The potential change to his ERA from moving out of Oakland will be negated by pitching to those NL bats that have never seen his stuff before.  Plus, if all goes according to plan, he should have an easier time w/ wins, too.  

But the real Lebowski?  It wouldn't be shocking to see him somewhere closer to a 3.50 ERA than his first half 2.30.  

The Other Lebowski: C. Young's 2nd Half

Chris R. Young (SP) was making a bid to be Knox Herrington of fantasy pitchers for the first half of 2007.  Then he sustained an oblique injury in July, and things were never quite the same: 

2007 1st half:  103.9 IP; 74 H; 23 ER; 3 HR; 36 BB; 99 K, 2.00 ERA

2007 2nd half:  69.1 IP; 44 H; 37 ER; 7 HR; 36 BB; 68 K, 4.81 ERA

2007 Final:  173 IP; 118 H; 60 ER; 10 HR; 72 BB; 167 K, 3.12 ERA

AJ Mass of ESPN, even taking the second half injury into account, is wondering if C. Young is a 2008 bust candidate based upon his home/away splits: 

"When Young left the nest, the story was quite a different one.  The 1.69 home ERA skyrocketed to 4.52, and while he allowed only one home run at Petco in 2007, he allowed nine long balls on the road."

With all due respect to my brother seamus at ESPN, I've seen a bunch of phonies in my day - and I don't think C. Young is one of 'em.  Let's look at Young's away stats before and after the ASB (which is, basically, before and after the oblique injury):  

Away 1st half:  47.5 IP, 42 H, 18 ER, 3 HR, 18 BB, 47 K, 3.41 ERA

Away 2nd half:  39 IP, 26 H, 26 ER, 6 HR, 22 BB, 43 K, 6.00 ERA

The injured Young struggled w/ his control in the 2nd half.  He was walking more batters, and although he wasn't giving up as many hits, he clearly had more issues w/ the long ball; twice as many as in the first half in 4/5 the IP.  Add those things together and you get a ballooning ERA.  (Interestingly, his K rate improved.)  

So, just citing his overall home/away splits for the year is a little misleading.  While, yes, Young clearly performs much better at Petco, he was much better on the road before his injury.  I mean, am I splitting hairs here?  Am I wrong?  Am I wrong?  

He should be fine in 2008.  You know, uhhhh, unless he gets injured.  

Out of Your Element: Russell Martin

In WS's continuing series of potential 2008 goldbrickers:

Russell Martin

Remember when Brian McCann hit 25 HR and 93 RBI while batting .333 in 2006?  Remember how disappointed his owners were in 2007 when he didn't produce as much power and his BA dropped 60 points?  Not to say that he won't bounce back, but it's likely that expectations were too high for such a young guy playing such a tough position. 

Martin, another very young guy (25), had a nice blend of 19 HR, 87 RBI, 21 SB and .293 BA in 2007.  But, for the full story, look at his performance in the second half of 2007.  After the ASB, Martin kept his BA up, but had only 36 R, 8 HR, 27 RBI, and 5 SB.  

A bright future, for sure.  But I don't like growing pains in my third round pick... and this is our concern, Dude.  

Out of Your Element: Eric Byrnes

Some players made substantial fantasy contributions in 2007, but aren't likely to put up the same numbers in 2008.  This feature looks at some likely goldbrickers:  

Eric Byrnes

In 2007 he had 21 HR, 50 SB and batted .286 in 626 at bats.  ESPN now has him 12th among outfielders, 33rd overall.  First, note that he's 32 years old.  And it's an old 32, as well; he plays hard and gets hurt.  2007 was only Duderino's 3rd season with over 450 at bats (and he's been in the league 8 years).  Not to mention, prior to 2007, he'd stolen a total of 65 bases.  Of course, speed - his most valuable asset - doesn't disappear overnight.  Unless he's hurt.  Again.  And I don't think a speedster on the wrong side of 30, with a career BA of .267, is worth taking in the first 3 or 4 rounds.  

Some ancient history, for comparison's sake (AB; R; HR; RBI; SB):

Byrnes: .267 career avg

2004:  569; 91; 20; 73; 17

2005:  412; 49; 10; 40; 7

2006:  562; 82; 26; 79; 25

Player X:  .258 career avg

2004:  630; 91; 24; 72; 32

2005:  451; 47; 13; 34; 15

2006:  463; 75; 16; 53; 45

Now, before you say "Sh*t, I know that guy.  He's a nihilist.  Karl Hungus..."  Player X is Corey Patterson - who, btw, is not currently ranked among ESPN's top 340.  Cincinnati just signed him for 2008.