Out of Your Element: Manny Ramirez

From WS's continuing series of potential 2008 goldbrickers:

Calling 2007 a disappointment for Manny Ramirez is now cliché.  But at least he was able to spend some time towards the end of the regular season to work on his hot website.  And while fantasy pundits have universally lowered Manny's overall rank, they're still placing him in the 5th round.  Far out, man.  The last place I'd like to be is between Manny and a bag of kind bud.  Second to that is a bag of money (he's playing for a team-option year).  

But let's not forget, let's NOT forget that he turns 36 in May.  He hasn't hit really hit more than 100 RBI since 2005.  Although, let's grant him that it's tough to rake in RBI when one doesn't get the ABs (449 in 2006, 483 in 2007).   

Sure, based upon his legendary career, there's (diminished) potential.  But there's a lot of other potential to be had in the 5th round of your draft.  Without the risk, too. 

Calmer Than You: On Reservations About Fausto

ESPN ranks Fausto Carmona the 16th overall SP.  My thoughts are that this is a pretty fair place for him to be ranked.  Things clicked for the young sinker-ball thrower, last year, and the only thing preventing him from utter dominance in 2007 was a low strikeout rate.  His final stats for 2007: 

215 IP, 137 SO, 19 W, 8 L, 3.06 ERA, 1.209 WHIP

RotoWire, and misc. talking heads (of varying degrees of prominence), are considering Carmona closer to #30.  Why?  "Because no one knows how pitching all of those innings in 2007 will effect him this year."  Sounds like a fair point, right?  Let's go to the numbers.  Here are the top 20 (according to the vox populi at ESPN) SP, their IP, total pitches thrown, and avg pitches/inning:

1. Johan Santana - 219 - 3345 - 15.27

2. Jake Peavy - 223 - 3610 - 16.19

3. Erik Bedard - 182 - 2946 - 16.19

4. Brandon Webb - 236 - 3437 - 14.56

5. C.C. Sabathia - 241 - 3581 - 14.86

6. Josh Beckett - 200.7 - 3100 - 15.45

7. Cole Hamels - 183.3 - 2791 - 15.23

8. Dan Haren - 227 - 3635 - 16.01

9. John Lackey - 224 - 3396 - 15.16

10. Justin Verlander - 201.7 - 3354 - 16.63

11. Aaron Harang - 231.7 - 3591 - 15.5

12. Roy Oswalt - 212 - 3303 - 15.58

13. John Smoltz - 205.7 - 3062 - 14.89

14. Roy Halladay - 225 - 3330 - 14.8

15. Chris Young:  173 - 2884 - 16.67

16. Fausto Carmona:  215 - 3137 - 14.59

17. Daisuke Matsuzaka:  204.7 - 3480 - 17.00

18. Carlos Zambrano:  216.3 - 3692 - 17.07

19. Javier Vazquez:  216.7 - 3465 - 15.99

20. James Shields:  215 - 3177 - 14.78

For those of you not # crunching at home, of the "top 20" pitchers, Carmona had the 11th most IP.  Sure, 215 IP is a lot for a 2nd year guy (we're looking at you, J. Shields).  But, also of note, Carmona threw 3,137 pitches - good for only 15th most of these 20.  That's an average of 14.59 pitches/inning; only B. Webb was more efficient.  Hmm, suddenly all those innings aren't looking as strenuous.    

So when Donny whines about Carmona being ranked too high because of the IP factor without acknowledgement of total pitches, then tell him to STFU.  That's especially true if he doesn't hold other pitchers to the same standard (e.g., Shields).  

Furthermore, if Donny starts downplaying Carmona (say, to the tune of a #30 or lower ranking), beware: the little creep may be stonewalling you.  

All that said, Carmona shouldn't be ranked HIGHER than #16.  He is still young, no track record, and he got pretty lucky w/ BABIP in 2007.  Expect his ERA to go up a little in 2008, but there's no evidence that the plane's about to crash into the damned mountain, either.  

N.B.  - oh yeah, for you thinkers out there who place extra value on 2nd half performance: Carmona's K rate went UP as the season wore on.  And, of course, his ERA dropped .80 after the ASB.